Euro 2024: how do things look beyond the quarter-finals?
Calculating the probabilities for the last eight and beyond
As we’re quickly running out of matches, this will probably be the last full post on the Euro 2024 simulations. If anything else of interest happens I’ll cover it with a Note.
Following the completion of the Round of 16, I’ve re-run the prediction model to see how the probabilities have shifted. As usual, this involves simulating the remainder of the tournament 100,000 times using the latest Elo ratings and seeing how many times each outcome occurs.
Here’s how things are looking now, including the confirmed quarter-final match-ups.
The most likely final pairing is now France vs. the Netherlands (just under a 12% chance) despite both having a higher-ranked team on their side of the draw. This is due to both having a more winnable quarter-final than their likeliest semi-final opponents, with the increased chance of progressing to that stage outweighing the slight disadvantage they’d have if they got there.
While that’s the most probable final in the model’s eyes, the margins remain pretty fine. Both the France v England and Spain v Netherlands combinations have just shy of an 11% probability, with Spain v England a little lower at 10%.
Semi-final 1: Spain / Germany vs. Portugal / France
France began the tournament as the model’s favourite, given that they were the highest-rated European team. However after being held to two draws in the group stage (and scoring just twice) they were overtaken by Spain, who won all three of their matches without conceding a goal.
The good news for the French is that their next opponents are an out-of-sorts Portugal, whose rating has dipped after a loss to Georgia and needing penalties to get past Slovenia. This looks to be an easier task than awaits Spain, who have hosts Germany standing in their way. The Germans receive a ratings boost as the home team, but this isn’t sufficient to give them an overall advantage (it just narrows the gap quite a bit).
Therefore while Spain would be the likelier winners in either of their potential semi-final match-ups, the French have a better chance of getting there in the first place (64% vs. 54%) and that’s enough to tip the scales in their favour.
Semi-final 2: Netherlands / Turkey vs. England / Switzerland
As discussed last time, England have been lucky to find themselves on the easier side of the draw: they were guaranteed a path to the final which avoided all of the four teams who began the tournament with a higher ranking.
Their quarter-final opponents Switzerland have the second-lowest rating of the eight remaining teams and they could still meet the lowest if Turkey were to continue their momentum.
However it’s the Netherlands who look more likely to make it all the way to the final from this side of the bracket. Their rating is almost identical to England’s (a shade lower) but again the relative strength of quarter-final opposition is tilting the probabilities. The Dutch have a greater chance of getting past Turkey (68%) than England do of progressing at Switzerland’s expense (60%).