Euro 2024: how the tournament looks after two rounds of games

With two thirds of the group stage completed, what trajectory is each team on?

This is the third iteration of my Euro 2024 simulations (explained here) in which I’ve simulated the tournament 100,000 times to calculate each team’s most probable trajectory. With everyone having played twice it felt like the ideal time to take stock.

The knockout rounds

As with previous iterations, let’s start by looking at the likely combinations in the knockout phase before tackling individual groups and teams. These graphics show the percentage chance of each nation progressing to each knockout tie.

We know the identity of two group winners: Spain in Group B and Portugal in Group F, both of whom will meet a third-placed team in the Round of 16 and therefore stand a strong chance of reaching the last eight.

The top spots in Groups D and E are still pretty wide open by comparison, with France and the Netherlands tied on points in the former and all four teams level in the latter. The Round of 16 games being fed directly by these two groups are the only ones in which neither berth has a clear favourite at present.

Next we can check out how things are looking from the quarter-finals onwards.

Spain and Portugal are currently on a collision course to set up an all-Iberian semi-final. At present there is around a one-in-five chance of this happening as both would need to defeat a tough quarter-final opponent beforehand.

If England can recover from their sluggish start, then they could set up a rematch of the 2020 final against Italy (provided both reach the semis).

The fourth quarter-final remains the toughest to predict, at least on the “home” side of the bracket where the chaos of Group E is casting an ill-defined shadow.

At the moment, the most likely finalists are Spain and France, although at this relatively early stage there is only a 6% chance of this exact match-up.

As usual I’ve created a Google Slides presentation which contains all of the individual graphics here, rather than cluttering this post with 26 individual graphics.

Group A

Germany have already qualified for the knockout phase but are not guaranteed to do so as group winners. However a draw against the Swiss in their final game would be enough to secure first place. The hosts have a 46% chance of meeting Spain in the quarter-finals (a 71% chance of getting that far multiplied by a 65% chance of their opponents being Spain if they do).

Elsewhere in the group, Switzerland are all-but-mathematically through. They have a 99% chance of finishing in the top two, and with four points on the board would be almost certain to be among the four best third-placed teams if they were to slip below Scotland.

Both the Scots and Hungary have a roughly one-in-three chance of extending their stay in the competition. The latter can only reach the Round of 16 as one of the four best third-placed teams, as they are four points behind the Swiss. Both would likely have Group F winners Portugal to deal with if they make it.

Group B

Spain are guaranteed to progress as group winners and will meet a third-placed team in the Round of 16. As mentioned above, their reward for a win in their first knockout game would most likely be a clash with Germany, followed by an all-Iberian semi-final against Portugal.

Despite their recent defeat to Spain, Italy have a 90% chance of joining them in the knockouts and are roughly twice as likely to do so as runners-up than a third-placed team. This means they would probably face neighbours Switzerland in the Round of 16.

Winless Croatia have to defeat the Italians in their final game to stand a realistic chance of progressing, hence having only a one-in-three chance of doing so. Things look even bleaker for Albania, although an already-qualified Spain may opt to take their foot off the gas against them.

Group C

A disappointing England are nevertheless all-but-certain to reach the knockout stages with four points already accumulated. Their route through the tournament remains unclear, although if they were to slip up and finish second then hosts Germany would be their likely Round of 16 opponents.

Denmark are the likeliest to join England in the next phase and will probably have to deal with the Germans as probable runners-up, followed by Spain in the quarters if they can find a way through.

Serbia only have a one-in-three chance of making it beyond the group stage and would have a similar pathway to the Danes if so, as the win they require would probably catapult them into the runners-up spot.

Slovenia’s extra point and tougher final game makes third place their most probable fate, which gives them a much wider range of possible outcomes. Portugal are currently their most likely Round of 16 opponent, with France or the Netherlands awaiting beyond that.

Group D

Speaking of the French and Dutch, both are pretty much nailed on to progress. France are favoured to do so as group winners and would meet the Group F runners-up if so (probably Turkey). Whoever comes off worse in the tussle for top spot would face the runners-up from a wide-open Group E.

At the sharp end of the group, Poland have already been eliminated as they can only draw level on points with Austria and have an inferior head-to-head record against them.

The Austrians will probably have to make do with third place given their tough final game against the Dutch, but they should have a good enough record to qualify. This gives them a wide range of potential opponents but England, Belgium and Spain are among the more likely.

Group E

Intriguingly we have a four-way tie on points going into the final round of games. While Belgium are the favourites to top the group, they only have a one-in-three chance of doing so; not much better than Slovakia or Romania. This makes their pathway difficult to assess, but a tricky Round of 16 tie against France or the Netherlands is a real possibility.

Ukraine’s heavy defeat to Romania in their opening game has put them in the weakest position, but they still have a two-in-three chance of making it out of the group. They would probably do so as a third-placed team however, potentially setting up a tough Round of 16 tie with Spain or England.

Slovakia and Romania’s fates are finely balance ahead of their meeting in the final round of group games. They have near-identical strength ratings and are only separated by a single goal at present, thanks to the latter’s aforementioned big opening win giving them the edge.

Group F

Portugal’s win over Turkey was sufficient to wrap up first place in Group F with a game remaining, as neither of the other two teams can catch them. A third-placed opponent awaits them in the Round of 16, but things get tougher quite quickly thereafter with France, the Netherlands or Belgium likely to stand in their way should they reach the quarter-finals.

As the only other Group F team with a win to their name, Turkey have the best chance of joining them in the Round of 16. However their likely opponents at this stage are daunting: as runners-up they would face the winners of Group D, so probably France or the Netherlands.

Czechia’s probability of remaining in the competition has dropped below 50%, and if they defeat Turkey then that tricky Round of 16 tie would be theirs to navigate.

For Georgia to defy their roughly one-in-eight chance of progressing they need to spring a surprise on Portugal, who may choose to rest players with top spot already in the bag. Regardless of the result, their route into the knockouts would probably be as a third-placed team, with Spain or England their probable opponents.

Next steps

Barring any seismic developments I’ll refresh this again at the conclusion of the group stage to see how the surviving teams’ pathways have evolved.