How the first round of group games has affected Euro 2024

The routes to the final are already beginning to shift

In last week’s post I simulated Euro 2024 to work out each team’s most likely paths through the tournament. I’ve run my model again now that everyone’s played once to see how things have changed.

The knockout rounds

As we did last week, let’s start by jumping straight into the knockout stages before zooming in to individual groups and teams. These graphics show the percentage chance of each nation progressing to each knockout tie.

Spain’s victory over Croatia has almost doubled their chances of topping Group B and securing an easier Round of 16 draw against a third-placed team. England have likewise benefited from Denmark’s opening draw, while Belgium’s surprise defeat to Slovakia has shunted them from most probable Group E winners to runners-up and put them on a collision course with whichever of France or the Netherlands comes second in Group D.

Now skipping ahead to the quarter-finals and beyond, the probabilities are starting to narrow already.

The most likely quarter-final meeting is between Spain and Germany, who are favoured to top their respective groups and then dispatch their Round of 16 opponents. Belgium’s wobble in Group E means that the fourth quarter-final is now the most uncertain, although France or the Netherlands remain likely to prevail over whoever makes it through.

Once again I’ve created a Google Slides presentation which contains all of the individual graphics here, rather than shoehorning all 26 into this post.

Group A

Hosts Germany’s big win over Scotland has all but assured them of a place in the knockout stages, most likely as winners which would see them meet the runners-up from England’s group in the Round of 16. Combined with an opening victory for Spain, a quarter-final clash between these two has become a lot more likely.

Defeats for Hungary and Scotland means that both now have a roughly one-in-three chance of extending their stay beyond the group stage. With a tough opponent such as Italy or Spain probably awaiting in the knockouts, their route through the competition appears daunting.

Group B

While Spain’s big win over Croatia was closer than the scoreline made it look, it has nevertheless put them in a strong position. They are likely to qualify as group winners and meet a third-placed team in the Round of 16, before potentially meeting Germany or England in the quarter-finals.

Despite Italy recovering from their early concession to beat Albania, their most probable finishing position is second, which would see them face the runners-up from Group A in the Round of 16.

Group C

A narrow win for England over Serbia - combined with a draw for Denmark - has made it very likely that they will reach the knockout stages. The identity of their opponents remains unclear though: if they progress as group winners that would mean meeting a third-placed team in the Round of 16, followed by the runner-up from either Group A or Group B in the quarter-finals.

The rest of Group C is wide open, with little separating the prospects of the other three teams. All have Germany as their most probable Round of 16 opponents, followed by Spain and then France if they continue to prevail.

Group D

There hasn’t been a huge amount of change in expectations from Group D, with both France and the Netherlands winning their opening games as expected. However Belgium’s surprise defeat in Group E has bumped them significantly down the list of likely quarter-final opponents for these two.

With Poland and Austria facing each other next in each other’s most winnable game, it is likely that at least one of them may be eliminated before their third match kicks off.

Group E

Belgium’s shock defeat has shaken things up significantly, with Slovakia and Romania now more likely to top Group E. With the runners-up likely to be drawn against France or the Netherlands in the Round of 16 - rather than the third-placed team who await the group winners - the Belgians’ chances of reaching the semi-finals have been cut in half.

Slovakia and Romania both began the tournament with a slightly below 50:50 chance of lasting beyond the group stages, but their opening victories over higher-ranked opponents have boosted this to around 90%.

Group F

Winning their toughest game on paper has put Portugal in the driving seat although, as the strong pre-tournament favourites to top the group, their prospects haven’t materially changed.

Meanwhile, Turkey’s win over Georgia has slashed the latter’s chances of reaching the knockout phase to just one in five.

Next steps

The aim is to repeat this exercise after every round of games, so I’ll re-run the model at the weekend once every team has played twice, and then again at the conclusion of the group stage.