Predicting Euro 2024
Calculating each nation's route to the final
Back when I was planning PA’s data coverage for the 2018 World Cup I started tinkering with a simple prediction model based on Elo ratings to help me understand each team’s likely route through the competition.
I ended up finding this so useful that I’ve refreshed it for every major international tournament since then. While I’m no longer working in sports media, it was a quick job to update it for Euro 2024 and I thought it would make a good inaugural post for this newsletter.
The knockout rounds
I have created a detailed breakdown for each team, but first let’s cut to the chase and looking at what the model predicts for the latter stages of the tournament. These graphics show the percentage chance of each nation progressing to each knockout tie.
Elo ratings are based entirely on results and don’t factor in things like player absences or underlying performances, but they usually yield pretty similar probabilities to those implied by betting markets.
Germany, Belgium and Portugal are heavily favoured to top their groups, with both having been handed relatively easy draws and the German team’s rating boosted by home advantage.
France and England are also likely to progress from their somewhat tougher groups, but have a less than 50% chance of doing so as winners.
The teams finishing first in Groups A and D have a tougher assignment than the other four group winners as they will meet a runner-up in the Round of 16 rather than one of the third-placed sides.
Moving on to the quarter-finals and beyond, England’s path is one of the more difficult to predict. Whether or not they top Group C, Spain, Croatia or Italy could be their opponents in the last eight.
At the moment it looks like the most likely semi-finals are Germany versus Portugal and France versus England, but the margins are sufficiently fine that I expect this to have changed when I revisit this after the first round of group games is completed.
I don’t want to bloat this post with all 24 individual graphics so I’ll just say a few quick things about each group. However if you want to find an individual image for any nation (like the ones below) there is a Google Slides presentation containing all of them here.
Group A
Hosts Germany are the favourites to progress in first place and will therefore probably meet the runners-up from England’s group in the Round of 16. They are unlikely to encounter World Cup runners-up France until the semi-finals.
The runners-up spot is a lot tougher to call, with the other three teams much closer in rating. With results between teams used as the first tie-breaker after points at this tournament there could be some hard-fought contests.
Due to the structure of the knockout draw, it is impossible for a Group A team to meet one from Group D until the quarter-finals. Therefore we may not see Germany face neighbours Poland or Austria at this tournament.
Group B
This is the closest thing to a “Group of Death” in Euro 2024, with three of its four teams currently ranked among the top eight at the tournament. While Spain are the favourites to finish top, the presence of World Cup semi-finalists Croatia and defending European champions Italy means this is far from a foregone conclusion.
Whoever tops Group B will face a third-placed opponent in the Round of 16 while the runners-up will meet another second-placed team, so there will be plenty of motivation to start well.
Group C
The stakes in Group C are high given that the runners-up will be one of two drawn against a group winner in the Round of 16, likely to be hosts Germany. Bookmakers’ favourites England are less fancied in Elo terms as they have the 5th-highest rating at present and their likely route to the final is a tricky one.
Whoever progresses is likely to have to deal with Germany sooner rather than later; avoiding France until the latter stages. Teams from Groups B and C cannot cross paths until the quarter-finals, so England will be kept apart from the likes of Italy and Spain until then.
Group D
The French have the highest Elo rating of any UEFA team at present and are therefore the model’s pre-tournament favourites. They are aided further by having a relatively easy Round of 16 tie - assuming they top their group - against the runners-up from Group F.
Austria have a case for being considered as the hardest done-by team in the group stage draw. Despite having the 10th-highest Elo rating of the 24 finalists, there are 15 teams likelier to reach the knockouts. This is due to the presence of two heavy hitters in their group (France and the Netherlands) and one of the strongest Pot 4 teams (Poland).
Group E
With two unfancied teams in Slovakia and Romania present, there is an expectation that we will see Belgium top Group E without much difficulty with Ukraine as the likeliest runners-up.
The trajectories of teams in Groups E and F will be separate until the quarter-finals, which keeps Belgium and Portugal apart in the Round of 16 and significantly reduces the likelihood of a “former Czechoslovakia” derby.
Group F
This is the other group whose runner-up will face a winner in the Round of 16. With Portugal favoured to top Group F, the inverse of a silver lining awaits the second-placed team as they are likely to meet France or the Netherlands in their first knockout game.
Realistically this will be one of Czechia or Turkey, with Georgia’s low rating suggesting that they are unlikely to spring a surprise.
Next steps
Time permitting, I will be creating a follow-up post after each round of fixtures is complete. This is my first attempt at a Substack post and I’m a bit rusty after a few years away from blogging, so I expect to learn more about the optimum balance and style as I go along.
